Meta Develops Prediction Market App Arena as Polymarket and Kalshi Volume Surges

① After trading volumes surged on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, prediction markets are transforming from a niche activity into a new traffic business in the eyes of internet giants.
② Latest reports indicate that Meta is developing an independent prediction market application called “Arena,” initially possibly testing with a points-based system, but future real-money trading has not been ruled out, reflecting Mark Zuckerberg’s continued search for new narratives amid growth pressure on the company’s core social media business.

June 24 — As a rising growth star in the U.S. internet sector over the past year, prediction market platforms that allow users to bet on a wide range of topics, such as the NBA champion and when the United States might go to war, have become a major business attracting hundreds of billions of dollars.

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Latest reports show that Zuckerberg, the head of social media giant Meta, also wants to gain a share of the prediction market.

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People familiar with the matter said Zuckerberg recently assigned a small team to develop a smartphone application similar to Polymarket and Kalshi. The app, internally called “Arena,” will operate independently from Meta’s social platform network, although the world’s largest traffic gateway will channel users to the application.

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According to initial plans, Meta’s prediction market will not allow users to bet real money at first and may rely on a points system similar to those used in gaming applications, but the company has not ruled out the possibility of allowing users to place real-money bets.

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For Meta, this is not its first attempt at a prediction market product. In 2020, Meta launched a crowdsourced prediction market application called Forecast, encouraging people to make guesses about the world in the early stages of the pandemic. The application was removed by Meta in 2022.

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Since then, prediction markets have rapidly become a cultural phenomenon. In 2025, total online trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket combined reached $50 billion. This year, stimulated by the Middle East war and the World Cup, the two platforms’ trading volume so far this year has exceeded $130 billion.

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Although such bets are widely regarded as gambling, they are called “event contracts” in the U.S. financial regulatory system and are overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

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Because prediction market operators can profit by charging fees on each bet, companies across industries are trying to enter this track, including several publicly listed companies. For example, cryptocurrency exchange Gemini and Trump Media & Technology Group both have plans to launch prediction markets.

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Returning to Meta, Zuckerberg’s latest move also echoes market concerns about the growth ceiling of social media giants.

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With more than 3.56 billion people on Earth accessing at least one Meta-owned app every day, the company’s incremental momentum has remained a focal point for investors.

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For years, Zuckerberg has observed viral new internet applications and quickly asked teams to follow and imitate competitors, yet the company has long struggled to develop successful standalone new apps. It was reported that in 2019 the company established a team called “New Product Experimentation” to try developing various social applications, including apps focused on podcasts and travel, as well as music and dating apps, but few products won user favor.

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However, with the arrival of the streaming era, developing standalone apps has become a transformation that traffic giants must undertake.

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Sources said that as platforms such as Facebook and Instagram increasingly focus on providing video content, Meta executives believe there is less room within these apps to test new products. This has pushed the company to look toward standalone apps.

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Earlier reports also said that at an all-hands meeting in April, Zuckerberg stated he had discussed with Chief Product Officer Chris Cox the development of as many as 50 new apps. In May, Meta launched two new apps: Instants, integrated with Instagram and allowing users to send “view-once” photos, and Forum, a Reddit-like forum product.

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