1. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that a new El Nino event could start within weeks, with intensity higher than previous cycles.
2. Drought high-risk zones are concentrated this time, with over 50% probability of drought in some farmlands and pastures in the coming months.
3. The FAO, together with the World Food Programme (WFP), has launched an anticipatory action initiative, aiming to raise USD 202 million to support 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk countries.
June 23 – On June 22 local time, the UN FAO released a global map of agricultural high-risk areas, warning that a new El Nino could start within weeks and be stronger than previous cycles, requiring global agricultural production and food security to be on full alert.
This time, drought high-risk areas are concentrated, with the Sahel belt, southern Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Central American Dry Corridor, and the Caribbean having the highest probability of impact. Some farmlands and pastures face over 50% probability of drought in the coming months.
These regions were severely hit by the 2015–2016 and 2023–2024 El Nino events, and are highly prone to total crop failure, livestock mortality, rising household debt, and climate-induced migration.
The FAO pointed out that, compared with past events, this El Nino has more severe compounding effects.
Jorge Alvar-Beltran, FAO Natural Resources Officer, stated: “This El Nino is totally different from previous ones. Global temperatures have already risen significantly, compounded by widespread conflicts and food insecurity. This climate shock will concentrate on vulnerable regions that already have weak resilience and scarce resources to respond.”
In response to continuously rising climate risks, the FAO, together with the World Food Programme (WFP), has launched an anticipatory action initiative, aiming to raise USD 202 million to support 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk countries.
The high-resolution risk map produced by the FAO can refine warning precision to 1 square kilometer, helping countries abandon broad-based disaster relief and precisely target high-risk areas for directed allocation of funds, irrigation supplies, and livestock feed resources.
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by abnormally warm surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, leading to changes in weather patterns worldwide. On average, El Nino occurs every 2–7 years and typically lasts 9–12 months.
Since El Nino can often be predicted months in advance, develops slowly, and follows certain patterns, countries can develop contingency plans and prepare for emergency response in advance.
In the current global financial landscape, investors are closely monitoring the latest developments in major economies. Central banks across the world have adopted differentiated monetary policies to address inflationary pressures and economic slowdown risks.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has signaled a potential pause in its rate-hiking cycle, while the European Central Bank continues to emphasize its commitment to bringing inflation back to target levels. Meanwhile, Asian markets have shown resilience amid shifting capital flows, supported by robust domestic demand and improving supply chain conditions.
Commodity markets have experienced notable volatility, with crude oil prices fluctuating due to geopolitical tensions and production adjustments by key exporters. Precious metals, particularly gold, have attracted safe-haven demand as investors hedge against currency depreciation and fiscal uncertainties.
In the fixed-income space, government bond yields have moved in response to changing expectations regarding future interest rate paths. Emerging market currencies have exhibited mixed performance, reflecting divergent economic fundamentals and external financing conditions.
Looking ahead, market participants will remain attentive to upcoming economic data releases, corporate earnings reports, and policy announcements that could shape the trajectory of global financial markets in the coming quarters.
