Germany Plans Nordic-Style State Pension Investment Fund

① Facing pressure from the concentrated retirement of the baby boomer generation and continuously expanding pension deficits, German Chancellor Merz is preparing to promote the establishment of a “Nordic-style” state pension investment fund.
② Through supplementary contributions equivalent to 2% of total wages, funds will be invested in stock and bond markets, which is expected to bring at least 30 billion euros in incremental capital to financial markets each year.
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June 23 News: As the originator of the modern state pension insurance system, Germany is preparing to establish a Nordic-style state pension investment fund to share the increasingly severe fiscal pressure of pension insurance through capital means.


German Chancellor Merz announced on Tuesday that he will advance a proposal to establish, in phases, supplementary pension contributions equivalent to 2% of total wages. He expects that this move will inject at least 30 billion euros (approximately 231.3 billion yuan) into financial markets each year.


According to previously disclosed details, the German version of the pension investment fund will “follow Sweden’s example” and invest in bond and stock markets. The plan will establish individual investment accounts, with the goal of raising pension levels, even during periods of “severe financial and economic crisis” such as the global financial turmoil of 2007-2008.


Merz, who previously served as chairman of the supervisory board of BlackRock’s German branch, stated on Tuesday: “The Nordics have already done it, and we will do it too.”


The macro background of this reform is that the coalition government led by Merz needs to announce a comprehensive reform plan for Germany’s medical insurance, income tax, and pension system before the German Bundestag recesses on July 10.


Most employees in Germany are required to pay 18.6% of their pre-tax wages into the pension fund (9.3% each from employers and individuals), but there is a certain upper limit on contributory wages. Last year, this system generated approximately 320 billion euros in total contribution revenue, but it is still not enough. Many retirees who mainly rely on statutory pensions face a halving of income after retirement.


Data from the Cologne Institute for Economic Research show that Germany’s “pay-as-you-go system” is facing an ever-expanding deficit. Public information shows that in 2024, the German government spent about 118 billion euros to fill the pension system gap, accounting for about one quarter of the total federal budget. Economists expect this proportion to double in the next 20 years.


Research predicts that by 2036, 16.5 million German baby boomers will retire, while only 12.5 million new workers will join the labor force.


It is reported that Germany’s package of pension reforms also includes linking the statutory retirement age (currently 67) to the national average life expectancy. For every one-year increase in life expectancy, the retirement age must rise by 8 months.


The proposal also includes abolishing the policy that allows retirees to receive a full pension after 45 years of contributions (meaning retirement as early as age 64), but these two points are highly likely to face strong opposition from labor unions.



The proposal also plans to require employers to pay full social security contributions for gig economy workers and to bring groups currently exempt from statutory pension insurance into the system.



Merz also stated on Tuesday that these proposals “can only work as a whole.”



From “savings-based pensions” to “investment-based pensions”



If Merz’s reform plan is ultimately implemented, it will mark a change in the underlying logic of Germany’s pension system.



Unlike Sweden, the United States, and other countries where pensions actively enter capital markets, Germany’s current statutory pension system does not currently require workers to accumulate substantial retirement savings in capital markets. This is also regarded as an important reason for the low stock ownership rate among German households.



Stefan Kemper, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management, commented that this fund plan sends “a very important signal” in addressing Germany’s demographic changes, and may also elevate the status of capital markets in the minds of the German public. For a long time, the German public has held a skeptical attitude toward capital markets.



Kemper said: “So far, Germans have been savers, not investors. For many people, capital markets are still associated with negative characteristics such as speculation.”



Germany’s financial industry also generally welcomes this plan, saying that establishing a market-based fund will be a key way to provide financial support for pensions. Bank executives, including Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing and Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp, have also once again called for expanding the coverage of company pension schemes.



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